How to Avoid A Climate Disaster

I have finished How to Avoid A Climate Disaster written byBill Gates a while ago, and I want to briefly talk about how I feel about this book in terms of global climate crisis. The first word came out of my mind after reading this book was “overwhelming”, and it was worse than the feeling that I already have toward climate change. As a person who is an advocate of climate action, I have been always aware of the difficulty of solving climate crisis, but Bill Gates’ exposition makes this situation look harder. Since he has mentioned at the beginning of the book that he would give solutions to solve climate change, I tried to be optimistic about this global threat.

​ The book starts with a number “51 billion” which is the average amount of greenhouse gas emission the world generateseach year, and Gates explains why we need to get to net zero and why it is hard. A series of severe problems (rising sea level, more extreme weather, decreasing biodiversity, wildfire, more viruses, etc.) can happen if we keep doing what we are doing. The global temperature has increased 1 Celsius since preindustrial times, and some places increased even more than 2 Celsius. This number seems really small that became one of the reasons people do not realize the severity of climate change, but this 1 – 2 Celsius can actually lead to a huge impact on the earth environment and human lives. The book mentions that the average temperature during the age of dinosaurs was just about 6 Celsius higher than today’s, which crocodiles were found living above Arctic Circles, and the last ice age was just 6 Celsius lower than today’s. However, if we do not control the greenhouse gas emission, the global temperature will increase 1.5 – 3 Celsius by the mid-century and 4 – 8 Celsius by the end of the century. A vivid example from the book is the comparison with COVID-19: the number of people who will die from climate change will equal to the number of people who died in COVID pandemic by the end of the century if we keep generating the same amount of greenhouse gases. Therefore, the reality is much more severe than people think, and we do need to think highly of this global crisis.

​ Reducing greenhouse gas emission is a hard task which requires the whole world works together with the same cognition. Gates explains the difficulties of balancinggreenhouse gas emission and economic development, especially in developing countries. It is selfish to require developing countries to stop emitting a lot of greenhouse gasses by using fossil fuels, because instead of shifting the focus to exploring renewable energy, which is much more expensive, they need the most cost-effective way to grow their economy which is the way developed countries used to grow in the past. Today, fossil fuels are still the cheapest energy resource, so the world will not shift to renewable energy based until the cost of renewable energy becomes the same or cheaper than fossil fuels. Another reason is that people prefer to use things (here can be fossil fuels) that we are familiar with and reliable rather than trying things that are new. Gates says: “We have a large and understandable incentive to stick with what we know, even if what we know is killing us”. Additionally, many outdated laws and regulations that can no longer follow up today’s situation should be updated; however, within each administration’s different priorities toward energy resource, updating old laws and regulations becomes harder.Lastly, the world does not have much climate consensus as we think. Although more people start realizing the existence of climate change, they still think many other things that can have bigger impacts on human lives should be prioritized instead of putting efforts on solving climate change which is not worth doing.  

​ After pointing out difficulties of climate change, the book then explains different concepts related to solving climate change such as how much is 51 billion, how much power we need, what is the cost, how much space we need, and what’s the plan for cement? Based on these questions, Gates talks about the challenges and breakthroughs in different main areas where we generate the most greenhouse gases including electricity, making things, food, and transportation. Everything relies on electricityin today’s life, even though many places in the world have not had available electricity yet. Generating electricity requires to burn fossil fuels which emit a huge amount of greenhouse gases, so the breakthrough should aim at zero-carbon electricity which has to be dependable and affordable. To reduce carbon emission from generating electricity, renewable energy solar and wind will be the two biggest focuses we need to work on. How to make electricity from these two resources as cheap as ones we are using today and how to store electricity in an affordable way (or even cheap way) have become the main challenges. Heating and cooling occupy a huge amount of energy used in electricity, and we have currently had energy efficient air conditioners and electric heat pump that both generate less emission. However, most people choose not to switch to energy-efficient heat and cooling system due to the lack of information and governmental policy and the unnecessity of changing a system which is still working well to the one which will cost extra money. Everythingwe make also requires to burn fossil fuels like buildings, vehicles, and all products, which are mainly made of concrete, steel, and plastics. Therefore, Gates argues that to achieve zero emission manufacturing, we should aims at 1) electrify every process as possible which requires a lot of innovations, 2) get the electricity from a power grid that’s been decarbonized, 3) use carbon capture to absorb the emission, 4) use materials efficiently. Everything we grow, food from agriculture and raising animals, also contribute a huge amount of greenhouse gases, specifically methane and nitrous oxide. Therefore,scientists have been focusing on breakthroughs like plant-based meat, lab-grown meat, sustainable fertilizers, etc. Next main breakthrough and challenge is transportation which mostly depends on fossil fuels, even though it only occupies 16% of global greenhouse gas emission. EVs (electric vehicles) is the breakthrough of transportation that is actually beginning to spread gradually in the world. China now has become the world biggest EVs import country and started putting these vehicles into their public transportation system, such as taxi, car hailing, and electric bike sharing. The challenge of EVs is to have a powerful battery storage, because current batteries are not able to support long distance. In addition to electric cars, zero-carbon alternative of gasoline can be advanced biofuels and electrofuels, but the downside is their high cost. Before technologies and innovations becomes mature that brings the price down, there are a few ways to reduce the emission that we can do: 1) less driving, flying, and shipping; 2) use less carbon-intensive materials to make cars; 3) use fuels more efficiently by making fuel standards; 4) switch to electric cars or cars with alternative fuel as possible as you can. Gates also argues that adapting warming temperature is necessary and needs the cooperation of government, such as growing heat-resistant crops, help the most vulnerable people, enhance the resilience of severe weathers, and so on.​

​ Now, we already have breakthroughs to solve climate change, but the hardest part is to make these breakthroughs available for the world. The most important thing is to bring down the green premium, which is the additional cost of green products / energy over ones that emit greater greenhouse gases.To lower the green premium, we need more technologies and innovations that government and scientists have to put a lot of efforts. For instance, the cost of solar energy has decreased 10 times between 2010 and 2020, and a full solar system went down by 11% in 2019 along. Therefore, for every breakthrough we have now, we need more innovations and mature technologies to bring down the cost of each green option so that the world can beat this global crisis.

​ Big entities can make a much more powerful impact comparing with individuals, so policies and regulations of government and other big entities are going to be the key in climate change. Gates strongly suggests that government should be investing in R&D (Research and Development) to prove to private sectors if it is worth investing money. Government should make (or update) different policies and laws related to reducing greenhouse gas emission and play a massive role at a national level (from federal government to state government to local government). Climate change also requires a mass participation, so government should also promote green development and encourage more people to be aware of climate change and participate in green actions. The last two chapters Gates set a plan for getting to zero emission and what each of us can do in climate action, which gives government, companies, and individuals a big picture of what we should do and prioritize within different roles. 

​ After reading this book, I got frustrated at one moment because I started doubting people who do not working in government and scientific fields have little impact in this climate movement such as social media influencers, because it is inefficient to control or change how individual behaves just by telling words online comparing with governmental policies and laws that people have to follow. However, if everyone thinks the same, there will be no impact at all. Just like the name of my website “KUPERCENT”, PERCENT means my own part of contribution in climate change, even though it is small, it still counts! This book explains from basic knowledge to deeper understanding in terms of the main area that we need to focus on to solve climate change. I like how this book not only gives professionals, scientists, and innovators ideas to contribute positively but also helps people who care about climate change to have a better understanding.